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More insight, less foresight: why AI can narrow strategy
Generative AI gives leaders more information, yet it can quietly erase the weak signals that strategy depends on.
Generative AI promises leaders more insight than ever. Ask a question and you get a confident, well-structured answer in seconds. But my research with Daniel Wagner and Alexander Richter suggests a paradox: more insight can mean less foresight.
Large language models favour the dominant patterns in their training data. That is what makes them fluent. It is also what makes them erase rare information: the weak signal, the contrarian view, the unusual event. And rare information is exactly where strategy lives, because emerging possibilities appear there first, before they become consensus.
Where the narrowing happens
We identified 25 risks that build up as leaders search for information, frame problems and weigh judgements. Most of them act long before a decision is taken, so by the time the options reach the boardroom, some have already disappeared.
What leaders can do
- Ask the model for the minority view, not only the consensus.
- Keep human sources for weak signals.
- Record what the AI contributed, so the choice stays yours.
The full article is forthcoming in Electronic Markets.